In 2013, when a stellar cast of opposition figures across the political spectrum, unveiled the All Progressives Congress (APC) as their platform to break the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) 16-year grip on power, then Senior Special Assistant to President Goodluck Jonathan on Public Affairs, Doyin Okupe, reportedly invited people to ‘call me a bastard’ if the party survived one year.
Two years later, after his principal was dethroned at the ballot box, many Nigerians obliged him with name-calling. In April of 2015 he posted a clarification on Facebook. What he actually said was ‘I will change my name.’ Never mind. The import of his words was contemptuous dismissal of a band of politicians he felt didn’t stand a chance against the PDP behemoth.
Ever since former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his collaborators announced the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the vehicle they would use to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027, their action has been greeted with feverish political chatter – much of it pessimistic.
A couple of days ago, Special Adviser to the President on Public Communications, Daniel Bwala, predicted that the group would scatter in six months. He’s not the only one to take such a position. Many independent analysts have equally been sceptical about this patchwork of strange bedfellows.
While there is a surfeit of reasons not to take Atiku and his co-travellers seriously, it would be unwise for the ruling party, or even the main opposition PDP – who they seek to supplant – to do so.
First, let it be said that elections in Nigeria are not necessarily determined by reason, an abundance of good works or ideological clarity. Rather, many contests have been resolved by ethnicity, religion, emotion, personality and pecuniary factors.
All of these factors were in strong play in 2023 and many would still be there in two years. Who can forget the impact of the Muslim-Muslim or same faith ticket across large swathes of the South and Christian-dominated areas of the North? Who can forget the millions of votes that were garnered on account of ethnic or regional solidarity?
But the greatest reason why ADC – a me-too project that aims to reprise the APC experiment of 2015 – should be monitored by its rivals is the desperation factor. The opposition wilderness isn’t a place the typical Nigerian politician who has ever tasted power wants to be. And I use the word desperate more in an adjectival sense than pejoratively.
Take ex-VP Atiku, for instance. There is a sense that this could be his last shot at the presidency given that he would be 80 in two years. Many expect him to run again – defying strident calls for the presidency to remain in the South on the basis of zoning.
But wouldn’t it be expecting too much to think he would now accept power rotation, when his rejection of the principle in 2023 led to his defeat at the polls? In all his comments after defeat, not once did he attribute his loss to a disastrous performance down South. Instead, he chose to blame Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) rigging and collusion with APC for his humbling.
It is possible that he may have had an awakening, realising that Southern sentiments which back a regional hold on the presidency till 2031 are still as strong as ever. In that event, he could choose not to run and back a candidate from the same region as Tinubu just to spite him.
The smart money, however, believes the serial contestant would make the same old noises about competence, his constitutional right to aspire and the democratic imperative of open primaries – and by so doing torpedo this latest contraption. Indeed, some believe it’s his creation for one final push for the presidency.
The other indication of desperation is that even before ADC has been able to identify what it stands for, Atiku’s would-be rivals are already offering to serve just one term of four years.
It’s not for nothing that the framers of our constitution provided for two terms of four years. It could be that they understood that not much can be achieved in the initial period when incumbents are busy paying political IOUs and are too wary to take adventurous steps.
Whether they are governors or presidents, many who have held office since 1999 were careful not to alienate those they needed to secure a second tenure. That’s why the pledges by former Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi and ex-Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, to serve just one term, have been met with mockery.
Their offer isn’t because both possess magic wands. It isn’t something driven by altruism but by a desperate realisation that the window of opportunity is closing. If they don’t get the ticket this time, in four years it returns to the North for another eight years. That is to say power won’t rotate down South again until 2039 – by which time Obi would be 78, Amaechi 74, and irrelevant in most political calculations.
What is looming is the retirement of a generation of politicians who have been active for the last four decades. For them, the fear of irrelevance is a powerful motivational factor. It’s akin to what drives a cornered animal to fight for survival.
While the desire for relevance may be pushing many to ADC, their flight is also fuelled by the assumption that PDP is done for. But anyone who understands the power of incumbency in determining electoral outcomes in these parts knows that people may be writing premature obituaries.
So far, the much-hyped ADC is just a congregation of ex-this, ex-this – many exhumed from deep retirement. At inception, the legacy parties that formed APC had 11 governors. This number rose to 16 in November 2013 when five PDP governors broke away to join them.
The same group that had sneered at the defection of Delta’s Sheriff Oborevwori and Akwa Ibom’s Umo Eno, to ruling party, saying the next elections would be between ‘Nigerians’ and the incumbent, are desperately searching these type of defectors. We’ve also been reminded about how Obi secured six million votes without a governor on his side. Sure, but see where it got him.
There’s no question that like most incumbent administrations, Tinubu’s government is in for a tough fight. Unlike two years ago, it now has a record that opponents can savage and voters assess. What makes it more difficult is the deep cynicism and polarisation within the polity. He faces foes who are unwilling to acknowledge that he has achieved anything in two years – even in the face of evidence.
He took the risky gambit of picking hot potatoes that his predecessors fled from. It would be his challenge to reassure the electorate that the bitter medicine has been worthwhile. It’s a tough sales pitch but not an impossible one.
On the positive side, he’s been able to neutralise a lot of the demonisation that polluted the voting climate last time. For instance, by his appointments and governance style he’s been able to banish the Muslim-Muslim bugbear, making it a non-factor going forward. After all the talk, Nigeria hasn’t been Islamised.
He was painted as ill and bedridden. But the same man has been crisscrossing country and globe, so much so that his foreign travels have become a point of opposition attack.
Those among his foes who have been excitedly writing him off on account of economic challenges forget that he won last time amid similar turmoil.
In 2015 an incumbent was beaten because there was a united effort that brought together all the major opposition parties root and branch. The copycat bid of 2025 doesn’t come close. PDP, LP and APGA would still go into the next elections in current form, only to be joined by the nascent ADC to further fragment the votes of those want to unseat the incumbent. This was the undoing of the opposition in 2023. The more things change the more they remain the same!
Credit:The Nation