Let us admit first and foremost that it’s shameful that not up to two years after the 2023 disastrous Yakubu Mahmood organised “technical glitch infested” presidential election, the cry is loud from a lot of quarters about which section should produce the next President of Nigeria.
It shows that most of these idle politicians do not have a second address. Even where some of them worked previously in some other capacities in some other businesses, they normally do not venture back to such businesses after being exposed to the illicit corrupt money that corrupt politicians acquire while in power in Nigeria. Little wonder Aristotle said that appetite for material things and other self-centered desires tend to pervert office holders. They can no longer be used to the gradual incremental nature of the profit from genuine business enterprise. They will rise and die as politicians and probably go to hell for their atrocities. Aristotle opined that man when perfected, is the best of animals but when separated from law and justice, is the worst of all. Immediately most people become Nigerian politicians, it appears that there is an evil spirit that separates them from law and justice, and they become the worst of all.
The League of Northern Democrats (LND) recently reached out to similar other groups in the region, including Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Northern Elders Forum (NEF) and Middle Belt Forum (MBF), to forge common ground to return power to the region in 2027 presidential election. They recognised that the challenges facing their region – poverty, insecurity, illiteracy, religious intolerance, disunity and diminishing political influence – are indeed serious. “The North is today in an ugly situation”, they said. Their vision is to reclaim the dignity, stability and influence of Northern Nigeria for the benefit of all Nigerians. They faulted economic policies of President Bola Tinubu’s government, saying it lacked human face. They admitted that the North is not presently dwelling in unity, and believed that this coalition will complete the long-sought unity of the North. They hoped that this coalition will mark the beginning of what will be a transformative coalition for Northern Nigeria, and to them the consequence of such a coalition will be profound: political entities such as the PDP, APC, LP, NNPP, SDP, state governors, legislators and even the presidency will be humbled and compelled to support and align with their vision.
It’s gratifying to know that this coalition believes that the ugly situation presently in the North is reversible and requires only commitment, collaboration and a shared vision from all of them. In truth, they concluded, “we owe ourselves and the generations behind us the solemn duty to do so.”
There’s no doubt that this coalition is right that this ugly situation in the North, and indeed, in the whole Nigeria, is reversible and requires only commitment, collaboration and a shared vision from all of us to attain it. This coalition is also very correct when they faulted economic policies of President Bola Tinubu’s government, saying it lacked human face. They were also spot on when they recognised that the challenges facing their region include poverty, insecurity, illiteracy, religious intolerance and so on. They actually forgot that the major problem facing the North is the incompetent and corrupt leadership of the North. They were hypocritical in stating that their vision is to reclaim the dignity, stability and influence of Northern Nigeria for the benefit of all Nigerians. They have only one vision, and that is to return power to the same incompetent and corrupt leaders in the North come 2027. They even acknowledged this in their communique when they said that this coalition is for the future where Northern Nigeria regains its leadership in Nigeria. Their meeting has nothing to do with alleviating the suffering and hardship of the masses of the North. Their only pain is that the incompetent and corrupt leaders in the South has outsmarted them and taken over the reins of power of Nigeria and appear to be sidelining their fellow incompetent and corrupt leaders from the North.
For the avoidance of doubt, Nigeria got their independence in 1960, and for the 64 years of Nigeria independence, the North has governed Nigeria for a period of 46 years, while the South has had it for a few period of 18 years. As a matter of fact, between 1979 to 1999, the North had a continuous leadership of Nigeria for almost twenty years, leaving only about 5 months of leadership to the South between August 27, 1993 to November 22, 1993, in which the interim regime of Ernest Shonekan lasted. So if the Northerners are suffering from the ugly situation of poverty, insecurity, illiteracy, religious intolerance, disunity and diminishing political influence, they were caused principally by Northern incompetent and corrupt leaders. To buttress this point, former Governor Aminu Bello Masari of Katsina State, where President Buhari comes from, cried openly like a baby during the regime of Buhari that men in Katsina State voluntarily gave their daughters and wives to bandits and terrorists to be sexually abused just to save themselves from being killed by the terrorists. He went into the forests to negotiate with the bandits himself and yet got no solutions to the insecurity in the State until he left office.
Same scenario went on in the entire North during the regime of Buhari. In the North East, the Boko Haram terrorists continued their rampaging onslaught against Nigerians in the destruction of their lives and property. They indeed got more reinforced with the support of the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP). In the North Central, the fight between the herdsmen and farmers reached the highest level and nothing was done about it till date. Buhari even confessed openly that he instructed the Inspector-General of Police from the North to remain in Benue State and solve the problems of the clash, but didn’t know the IGP disobeyed him and never remained in Benue to tackle the problem. Insecurity was highest during the regime of a Northerner. As terrible as the regime of Tinubu is, as regards the economy, it appears that the security under Buhari still remains worse than that of Tinubu. During Buhari’s regime, terrorists were so bold that they even attacked Kuje prison here in Abuja and released all their inmates numbering about 63 terrorists, killed some security personnel, and sustained no casualties on their part. How can returning power back to one of these Northern elites who contributed in bringing Nigeria to this sorry state be the solution to the problem of the North in 2027.
When Tinubu appointed the first Christian Southerner as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, some of these same Northern elites shouted to high heavens that the position should be the exclusive position of the Northern Muslims. Today, as terrible as Nyesom Wike’s personal character is, he has achieved more than his predecessors within the same space of time that he performed in the position.
The President, the North enjoyed most, since 1999 to my understanding was President Goodluck Jonathan, a President from the Southern State of Bayelsa. He transformed the almagiri beggars in the North to primary school children and bought school uniforms for them including feeding them in school. He supported the farmers in the North with all the necessary seedlings, fertiliser and other incentives through Adeshina, the then Minister of Agriculture. Indeed every Northern farmer was given a telephone through which effective communication and information were given to them to educate them on how best they will maximise their yield. He appointed the Northerners to the best positions in his cabinet. The insecurity was limited to the North East and every other part of Nigeria was safe for business. It was still these crop of mostly corrupt Northern elite that conspired against him to remove him from office. Their only reason was that it’s the turn of the North to produce the President.
One can even be tempted to assume that when these Northern elite fought against Jonathan to return power to the North that they may have a reasonable ground to do it considering the fact that Umaru Yar’Adua, who was the first elected President from the North since 1999 died in office barely three years after assuming office due to ill health thereby breaching the 8-year tenure rotation agreement between North and South. But in this scenario, a Southerner has just lasted about one year and half in office after the 8-year tenure of a Northern President, and some Northern politicians are already crying to return to power in 2027. This will not only be an injustice, but will also be unreasonable. I bet you that if Buhari had performed fantastically well in office, a lot of Nigerians may speedily agree to that option. But with the disastrous performance of Buhari, even against Northerners, it will be tough job for these Northern groups to convince anybody about their aim in 2027.
The fastest route to ensure the undesirable return of Tinubu to power in 2027 is for the North to field a fellow Northerner to contest against him in 2027. The North substantially brought Tinubu to power in 2023, if they want to remove him democratically in 2027, they must find another competent man of character from the South and support the person in order to obtain the support of both the North and South in this project of dismantling Tinubu in 2027. No reasonable Southerner or Northerner will sign in to elect a Northerner against an incumbent Southerner in 2027. It breaches the 8-year rotation plan, the North brought in Tinubu and if they believe they made a mistake, they must understand that in law, nobody is entitled to benefit from his own wrong. Buhari, with his cult followership in the North could not win presidential election for three times with only the Northern votes, but won when he collaborated with the South at the 4th attempt. These coalitions from the North will not win presidential election in 2027 with only the support of Northerners because in addition to winning the popular votes, one is expected to win at least 25% of the votes in at least two thirds of the states of Nigeria. Tinubu deserves to go in 2027, and the ideal way is to form a coalition of all Nigerians, North and South, to elect very competent leaders of character to replace him.