Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy in the eyes of the world|Jide Osuntokun
Foreign policy hardly plays any significant role in elections these days in most democracies unless the issue was really of an existential nature. Elections are won these days on bread and butter issues. This is unlike in the past when wars were fought to “make the world safe for democracy” or such idealistic slogans. The last elections in the USA was won on Trump’s promise to reduce inflation, particularly food inflation, and to bring prosperity to working class Americans through increased manufacturing jobs in the USA by so raising tariffs that any company that wants to sell in the American market would have to go into production in America to make their goods competitive Labour prices would automatically go up when he removes illegal immigrants depressing the cost of labour and living wages would have to be paid to workers and that this will favour the workers. Of course he had a hidden agenda of making white America great again by removing illegal aliens who are mostly from the Third World.
In the case of Vladimir Putin, his popularity is not based on his democratic credentials. Although, I have a feeling he could win an election on the basis of his wanting to restore Russian historical glory of the past from the Romanov Empire of Czarist Russia to the Soviet times even though like most empires, they were not based on the loyalty and support of the subject nationalities and the people. This nationalistic feeling would have made up for the oppression and economic deprivation common in the Czarist and Soviet Communist regimes. Empires in Europe and elsewhere from the British, French and German periods of domination in Europe appealed to their people on the claims of the ships and soldiers they could mobilise for war. Putin’s popularity is based on the political stability his regime has provided compared with the chaos that accompanied the collapse of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe.
Whatever credentials Volodymyr Zelenskyy has are not based on proven democratic support but on the fact that he is a war-time hero. He was elected during an ongoing crisis of existential challenges and war-time exigencies have prevented his country re-electing and validating his democratic support or throwing him out of office. His heroic efforts at holding his country together in the face of overwhelming military challenges from Russia and Russian nationalist insurgents in Eastern parts of the country encouraged by mother Russia’s inspired separatist sentiments.
The picture of a small country being bullied by a former imperial country draws the kind of sympathy of a David fighting a Goliath. The recent bullying of Zelenskyy on national television by the American president and the vice president to toe the American line or be made to face the music of slaughter by a much powerful Russian military has further solidified support for Zelenskyy at home and internationally. If the public has a vote, Zelenskyy would win hands down but in big international competition of the sort faced by Zelenskyy, he has no chance of winning unless the situation changes.
There are signs the situation may change. Right now, President Putin appears not to want a settlement. What he seems to want is total surrender by Ukraine. He seems to deliberately delay the peace offer by President Trump of some form of an armistice based on ceasefire and maintenance of the military status quo. This is in favour of Russia which currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine’s territory adjacent to Russia in Eastern Ukraine. Trump’s suggestion for stoppage of bombing of energy and transportation systems and civilian infrastructure has only been observed in their breaches by Russia. Opening up of the Black Sea corridor has also been tied up with international removal of sanctions on Russia. Putin ought to know that Trump who is virtually at war with other leaders in Europe is not in a position to lift the economic sanctions on Russia which are led by Europe. Russia has also linked ceasefire negotiations with peace treaty after the war including the final status of Ukraine including the limitations of what kind of military forces Ukraine should keep. He also wants Trump to guarantee Ukraine’s ban forever from joining NATO which Trump without discussing with Ukraine and Europe has previously offered. These outrageous demands make nonsense of all the sacrifices of Ukraine since 2014 and her loss of territories and military personnel and the destruction of Ukraine by Russia through aerial bombing, artillery fire and missiles.
Since Trump has boxed himself in by campaigning that he would end the war in 24 hours and that Trump would listen to him alone, he is definitely under pressure to deliver. His boasting on his policy of “diplomacy through power” is facing the hardest test. If Putin humiliates him, he may be tempted as he had publicly stated, to cripple Putin through an attack on the Russian economy. He says he would unleash American oil weapon by flooding the oil market by American overproduction thus bringing down the oil fuelled war machine of Russia by apparently supplying Western Europe and possibly India. There is nothing he can do about China buying oil from Russia. The second option he has is that he may increase the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine including the weapons that the former president, Joe Biden, was unwilling or reluctant to supply and finally suggesting of much more American military and financial support for Ukraine short of putting American military on the European theatre.
Credit:The Nation