By Salam Saheed
With political activities gathering momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the contest for the Oyo North Senatorial District is emerging as one of the most closely watched races in Oyo State.
The battle between the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Mrs. Hannah Olawunmi Ogunesan, and the candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Hon. Taoheed Abiola Peller, is expected to test political structures, regional alliances, party cohesion and the electoral strength of both parties.
ITV Online identifies several factors that could ultimately determine the outcome of the election as observed by political feelers.
Regional balancing
Regional sentiment is expected to dominate discussions throughout the campaign. Oyo North comprises 13 local government areas, with 10 located in Oke-Ogun.
Mrs. Ogunesan, a native of Saki East who is married into Saki West, is identified with the Oke-Ogun II bloc, comprising Saki East, Saki West, ATISBO, Irepo, Oorelope and Olorunsogo LGAS.
Peller hails from Iseyin LG and belongs to the Oke-Ogun I bloc, which consists of Iseyin, Kajola, Iwajowa and Itesiwaju LGAs.
Supporters of zoning argue that, following the tenure of the incumbent senator, Buhari Abdulfatai, political equity demands that, the next senator should emerge from Oke-Ogun II. Others, however, maintain that competence and popularity should outweigh regional considerations. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, Oke-Ogun I has produced two senators—Senator Gbenga Andrew Babalola and Senator Hosea Ayoola Agboola while Oke-Ogun II has produced only one, the late Senator Robert Bonuola Koleosho of Saki West. Against this backdrop, many political stakeholders, community groups and advocates of equitable representation argue that the incumbent senator, Senator Buhari Abdulfatai, should be succeeded by a candidate from Oke-Ogun II in the interest of fairness and regional balance.
Religion and gender
Religion has historically played a significant role in Nigerian elections, and Oyo North may not be an exception.
Ogunesan, a Christian, is also seeking to become one of the few women to represent the district in the Senate. Analysts believe her emergence presents an opportunity to challenge long-standing perceptions about female leadership in the area.
Peller, a Muslim, is expected to enjoy support from sections of the Muslim community while also relying on his cross-religious appeal and personal network.
Since 1999, every senator produced from the Oke-Ogun axis has been a Christian, a trend many analysts attribute to the strategic mobilisation of Christian organisations, including the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). In contrast, the Muslim community, despite its numerical strength, is often perceived as less politically coordinated. While the APC’s Mrs. Hannah Olawunmi Ogunesan, a Christian, seeks to expand female representation in the Senate, the APM’s Hon. Shina Abiola Peller, a Muslim, is expected to attract voters advocating broader religious and political inclusivity.
Experience and public profile
Ogunesan spent nearly three decades in the Oyo State Civil Service, rising to become Permanent Secretary before her appointment as Head of Service. She holds degrees from Ekiti State University and Olabisi Onabanjo University and attended executive programmes at the London School of Economics.
Peller, an entrepreneur and former member of the House of Representatives, combines legislative experience with a strong business background. He is widely recognised across Oyo State and remains particularly popular among young people.
Internal party dynamics
Political analysts believe party unity could significantly influence the election.
Within the APC, Ogunesan’s emergence followed a keenly contested primary involving other prominent aspirants. Since then, some party stakeholders have publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the conduct of the primary and have called for broader reconciliation ahead of the general election.
Since the APC senatorial primary that produced Mrs. Hannah Olawunmi Ogunesan as its candidate, the party has continued to grapple with internal discontent. Several political groups and party stakeholders have criticised the conduct of the primary, describing the process as lacking credibility. Ogunesan secured the ticket ahead of prominent aspirants, including Rt. Col. Gbenga Adegbola (rtd.) and Prof. Adeolu Akande of Otu, Itesiwaju LGA a development that deepened divisions within the party.
ITV online believes that ,unless the APC embarks on genuine reconciliation to address the grievances of aggrieved members, the lingering crisis could adversely affect Ogunesan’s electoral prospects.
Some party faithful also remain dissatisfied with her previous defection from the APC to the Accord Party during the last 2023 general election cycle, questioning her loyalty to the party.They further claim that ,Ogunesan engaged in anti-party activities by aligning with the Accord Party and Labour Party during the 2022–2023 election cycle before returning to the APC after electoral defeats.
In contrast, the APM candidate, Hon. Taoheed Abiola Peller, emerged largely through consensus with the backing of influential party leaders, including supporters of Governor Seyi Makinde, and faced no significant opposition during the nomination process. However, some party members are concerned about whether he would sufficiently accommodate grassroots loyalists who mobilise support for his campaign. Critics also perceive him as a politician whose influence is concentrated among the elite and social class. Analysts contend that unless Peller strengthens his engagement with party structures and reassures members of his commitment to inclusive leadership, voter apathy within the party could undermine his electoral chances.
The APC’s Oyo North senatorial candidate, Mrs. Hannah Ogunesan, continues to face internal opposition, particularly from some stakeholders in ATiSBO LG, who accuse her of undermining the party’s leadership under the late Senator Abiola Ajimobi till date and respected leaders such as Pa S.A. Adekola, Hon. Adebayo Olagbenro and Pa Enoch Adediran (Kobinu). The stakeholders have also been questioning her continued involvement in ATISBO’s political affairs, noting that she is from Saki East LG. They have also been criticizing her alleged role in the 2026 APC congresses, accusing her of submitting an alternative list of executives contrary to the party’s consensus arrangement. This issue should be sorted out for her to make a lead way.
Political structures
Mrs. Hannah Ogunesan’s previous service as Oyo State Head of Service is widely regarded by political observers as a significant advantage in the Oyo North senatorial race. During her time in government, she was considered influential in the appointment of several local government chairmen across Oke-Ogun, including Hon. Olusola Ayoola (Gudi) of ATISBO, Hon. Moroof Ajani, Demark Leke, and Hon. Niyi Olawuwo of Saki East. Analysts believe that the political networks established during that period, alongside the loyalty of some former councillors and grassroots operatives, could strengthen her campaign, given that local politics often revolves around established political structures.
Similarly, Hon. Shina Abiola Peller brings considerable political experience as a former member of the 9th National Assembly. Having contested, won, and lost elections, he is widely recognised across Oke-Ogun, particularly among young people. His previous campaign organisation, Oke-Ogun Lokan, as well as his enduring relationships with volunteers and content creators across the district, are viewed as valuable assets that could enhance his grassroots mobilisation and electoral appeal.
Accessibility
While some political observers argue that Ogunesan is viewed as more bureaucratic due to her civil service background, others believe Peller enjoys greater visibility at public events and maintains wider engagement with younger voters. Public perception may also influence the Oyo North senatorial contest.
Some feelers view Mrs. Hannah Ogunesan as reserved, rigid, and less accessible to grassroots supporters, arguing that she is more closely associated with the elite than with everyday party loyalists. In contrast, Hon. Shina Abiola Peller is generally regarded as more approachable, particularly during public engagements and social events, although some believe access to him outside such occasions is limited. By comparison, the incumbent senator, AbdulFatai Buhari, is widely recognised for his accessibility, simplicity, and close relationship with constituents ,qualities many consider a benchmark for effective representation.
Key battlegrounds
𝗜𝗧𝗩 𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 identifies Iseyin, Saki West and Irepo as critical LGAs capable of influencing the final outcome because of their voting population.
Home advantage is expected to benefit both candidates in their respective strongholds, although local alliances, historical relationships and party loyalty may reshape voting patterns across the district.
As an indigene of Saki West LGA, Mrs. Hannah Ogunesan may benefit from voters who believe electing a representative from their area would improve access to government and constituency benefits. However, some critics contend that decisions she took during her tenure as Oyo State Head of Service alienated certain political interests, a factor they believe could translate into opposition against her candidacy.
Hon. Shina Abiola Peller, an indigene of Iseyin LGA, is expected to retain substantial support in his home base, having previously secured significant votes there. However, analysts note that the political dynamics have changed, with the contest now largely viewed as an Oke-Ogun versus Oke-Ogun race rather than a regional contest against Ogbomoso area. While some of his past political disagreements may influence voting in certain quarters, his maternal ties to Kishi in Irepo LGA are considered an electoral advantage. Nevertheless, party loyalty among core APC supporters could limit his appeal in some areas.
National politics and party strength
The presidential election is also expected to influence the senatorial contest.
The APC hopes to benefit from President Bola Tinubu’s political structure and incumbency, while APM is expected to leverage the popularity of Governor Seyi Makinde within Oyo State. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC candidate, and Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, the APM candidate, are both prominent Yoruba political figures but profess different faiths. Political analysts believe Tinubu may benefit from voters who support continuity at the federal level, while Makinde’s perceived performance and visibility in Oyo State could strengthen his appeal among sections of the electorate.
Religion may also shape voting behaviour. Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket in the previous election generated criticism from several groups, including the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). Some analysts argue that this sentiment could encourage greater support for Makinde in parts of the state and potentially create a coattail effect for APM candidates in the National Assembly elections. However, the extent of such an influence remains uncertain and will depend on broader political and local electoral dynamics.
House of Representatives influence
The outcome of the House of Representatives contests may equally affect the Senate race.
Mrs. Hannah Ogunesan could benefit from the established political structure of Hon. Tajudeen Kareem, a third-term member of the House of Representatives whose grassroots network spans parts of the old Irepo axis. His experience and political organisation are seen as assets that could bolster her campaign.
In Iseyin, however, the APC House of Representatives candidate, Hon. Saheed Adejare Alaran, is seeking election for the first time. Despite his political influence and strong local connections, analysts suggest that if Iseyin voters adopt a “win-win” voting pattern by supporting indigenous candidates for different offices irrespective of party affiliation, local identity may outweigh party loyalty, with many prioritising what they perceive as the overall political interest of Iseyin.
The political dynamics in Iseyin could also shape the senatorial contest. If the anticipated “win-win” voting pattern fails to materialise, the votes in Iseyin may be split between supporters of Hon. Shina Abiola Peller and those loyal of Hon. Saheed Adejare Alaran in favor of Hannah Ogunesan.
Campaign financing
Money is expected to be a decisive factor in the Oyo North Senatorial election. Political observers believe Hon. Shina Abiola Peller’s perceived financial strength could enhance his campaign and grassroots mobilisation, while critics describe Mrs. Hannah Ogunesan as more conservative in campaign spending.
The unpredictable factor
Beyond the identified political variables, the Oyo North Senatorial contest may also be influenced by unforeseen developments. Political analysts point to the possible roles of traditional rulers, the political influence of Senator AbdulFatai Buhari, the Ogbomoso voting bloc, and other emerging factors that could ultimately shape the outcome of the election.